9631 Kommentare

• Kommentar-Link Donnerstag, 19 Juni 2025 11:21 gepostet von ร้าน ขาย ไวน์

  Can't get enough of good glass of wine. Whether it's red or white, it’s the prfect way to
  relax. Are there aany wine lovers around?
• Kommentar-Link Donnerstag, 19 Juni 2025 06:24 gepostet von ไวน์ขาว

  I'm a hugee fan of good wine. Whether it's reed or white, it just elevates any occasion. Are there any
  wine lovers around? #RedWine
• Kommentar-Link Donnerstag, 19 Juni 2025 06:07 gepostet von ดอกไม้งานศพ

  Way cool! Some very valid points! I aappreciate you penning this post and the rest of the site is really good.
• Kommentar-Link Mittwoch, 18 Juni 2025 18:13 gepostet von ไวน์ ออนไลน์

  I'm a huge fan of good vintage wine. Doesn’t matter if it’s
  dryy or sweet, it’s the perfect way to relax.
  Anyoe else here love wine?
• Kommentar-Link Mittwoch, 18 Juni 2025 11:05 gepostet von MichaelPoide

  There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
  раз анальный секс
  A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
  
  It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
  
  Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
  
  Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
  
  The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
  
  All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
  
  For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
  
  It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
  Why so many ghosts?
  No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
  
  The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
  
  The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
  
  Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
  
  The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
• Kommentar-Link Dienstag, 17 Juni 2025 15:21 gepostet von ดอกไม้หน้างานศพ

  ชอบแนวคิดที่แชร์ไว้ในบทความนี้ครับ ถ้าใครกำลังมองหาผู้ให้บริการตกแต่งงานศพ ผมแนะนำลองดูร้านที่มีผลงานจริงและรีวิวดี ๆ ครับ
• Kommentar-Link Dienstag, 17 Juni 2025 14:51 gepostet von MichaelPoide

  There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
  гей порно большой
  A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
  
  It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
  
  Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
  
  Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
  
  The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
  
  All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
  
  For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
  
  It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
  Why so many ghosts?
  No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
  
  The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
  
  The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
  
  Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
  
  The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
• Kommentar-Link Montag, 16 Juni 2025 19:44 gepostet von 롤놀이터

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• Kommentar-Link Montag, 16 Juni 2025 12:36 gepostet von Ramon

  Hello! I'm at work surfingg around your blog from my new iphone 4!
  Just wanted to say Ilove reading through yyour blog
  and look foreard to all your posts! Keep up the excellent work!
• Kommentar-Link Montag, 16 Juni 2025 12:23 gepostet von Gamemods.info

  บทความนี้ให้ข้อมูลมีประโยชน์มากครับ ถ้าใครกำลังมองหาบริการจัดดอกไม้งานศพ ผมแนะนำลองดูร้านที่มีผลงานจริงและรีวิวดี ๆ ครับ